Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 Could Boost Game Pass by Up to 4 Million Subs — but at the Cost of 6 Million Lost Sales, Analysts Predict

Black Ops 6 comes out today, October 25, and it does something no other Call of duty game has done before: launch straight into Game Pass.

Following Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of Call of Duty maker Activision Blizzard, the pressure is now on its gaming business to deliver. With that in mind, Xbox boss Phil Spencer has decided to take the plunge and release Black Ops 6 as a day one Game Pass game, albeit restricted to the Ultimate and PC Game Pass tiers.

This is a momentous moment not just for Call of Duty but for Game Pass, which has struggled for growth in recent years. Latest official figures put Game Pass subscriber numbers at 34 million. That’s 34 million paying subscribers across console, PC, and cloud. Indeed Microsoft removed its $1 introductory Game Pass trial just weeks before Black Ops 6’s launch, as it did with last year’s Starfield — further evidence, after recent price hikes and tier changes, that the pressure is now on for Game Pass to make the absolute most of the power of Call of Duty.

Will it pay off for Microsoft? In interviews with GamesIndustry.biz, analysts predicted Black Ops 6 could boost Game Pass subscriber numbers by between 2.5 million and 4 million. However, analysts also predicted a significant impact on sales of Black Ops 6. Call of Duty is usually the best-selling game of the year, but there is now a big question mark over whether it will achieve that record once again with Black Ops 6 given it’s available as part of Game Pass.

Wedbush boss Michael Pachter told GI that putting Black Ops 6 into Game Pass could result in up to six million lost sales, based on the idea that 25% of Game Pass subscribers might have bought the game anyway. Countering this, Pachter said Game Pass could swell by between three to four million subscribers.

This is a perhaps expected shift, but is it overall better for Microsoft and Activision? The theory is that getting more players through the door than ever before, even at the cost of sales of the game, will eventually pay out because of Call of Duty’s lucrative live service, which is fueled by premium battle passes and costly cosmetic packs. Microsoft may be playing the long game here, even though it risks negative headlines about Call of Duty sales being down compared to previous years.

Of course, now Microsoft has taken the plunge with Call of Duty little is off the table when it comes to Game Pass. The expectation now is that each year’s premium Call of Duty game will launch day one on Game Pass, and fans are still waiting for the back catalog to be added.

We’ve got plenty more on Black Ops 6 ahead of launch, including its strange arachnophobia mode, built-in support for better audio tech that costs $20, Activision’s new ambitious plans to beat cheaters, and confirmation it doesn't include the dreaded Riot Shield.

If you’re jumping into Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 multiplayer, check out our Essential Multiplayer Tips and Tricks to help you get started. We’ve also got a full weapons list, a guide to all multiplayer maps and game modes, and details on how to unlock all Black Ops 6 operators.

Wesley is the UK News Editor for IGN. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can reach Wesley at wesley_yinpoole@ign.com or confidentially at wyp100@proton.me.